MH370: New refinement indicate search should be prioritised further south

 Australian Transport Safety Board (ATSB) released an updated flight path analysis of the missing Flight MH370 in the Southern Indian Ocea...



Australian Transport Safety Board (ATSB) released an updated flight path analysis of the missing Flight MH370 in the Southern Indian Ocean. The search area refinement was achieved through a combination of a better understanding of the ground initiated telephone call messages and a refined satellite communication (SATCOM) data that indicate the next, underwater search phase, should be prioritized further south on the 7th arc, within the wide search area.


This results from analysis of SATCOM data and information from an unanswered ground-to-air telephone call at 18:39 UTC on Saturday 8 March, 17 minutes after the last radar information.

The last primary radar return related to MH370 was at 18:22 UTC – this was the final positive fix for the aircraft. At this time, the aircraft was tracking north-west along the Malacca Strait. Burst Frequency Offset (the recorded value of the difference between the received signal frequency and the nominal frequency at the ground earth station) data associated with the satellite arc at 18:25 UTC indicated that the aircraft had approximately continued on that track. However, by the time of the ground initiated telephone call at 18:40 UTC, analysis of the BFO data associated with the telephone call indicated that the aircraft was travelling approximately south. This analysis was based on the assumption that the aircraft had maintained a relatively constant altitude during the time of the telephone call.

As a result of this analysis, there is greater confidence that a turn to the south occurred before the unanswered telephone call at 18:40 UTC, the report says.

Examination of the second telephone call BFO at about 23:14 UTC did not narrow the range of predicted latitudes at the 7th arc intercept.

Although of reasonably high confidence, and relatively large, this area does not contain all the possible derived paths, the report added. This area is intended to be the focus of activities for the initial deployment of the underwater search assets.

Refinements to the analysis of both the satellite and flight data have been continuing since the loss of MH370.

The analysis is being undertaken by a search strategy group coordinated by ATSB, consisting satellite and aircraft specialists from the Accidents Investigation Branch (UK), the airplane manufacturer- Boeing (US), Defence Science and Technology Organisation (Australia), Department of Civil Aviation (Malaysia), Inmarsat (UK), National Transportation Safety Board (US) and Thales (UK).

Additionally, work is continuing with ongoing examination and analysis of the SATCOM data and end-of-flight scenarios or simulations which may affect the dimensions or flight path probabilities within the search area. The ongoing refinement may result in changes to search asset deployment.
On 8 March 2014, flight MH370, a Boeing 777200ER registered 9M-MRO, lost contact with Air Traffic Control during a transition between Malaysian and Vietnamese airspace. An analysis of radar data and subsequent satellite communication (SATCOM) system signalling messages placed the aircraft in the Australian search and rescue zone on an arc in the southern part of the Indian Ocean. This arc was considered to be the location close to where the aircrafts fuel was exhausted.

Read the complete report here: MH370 – Flight path analysis update. The report should be read along the MH370 - Definition of Underwater Search Areas released in June.

Australia awarded the underwater search contract to Fugro Survey Pty Ltd (Fugro) to search the Southern Indian Ocean sea floor in August.
Fugro will use two vessels Fugro Equator and Fugro Discovery, equipped with towed deep water vehicles and carrying expert personnel, to undertake the search operations along with the vessel GO Phoenix supplied by Phoenix International.
The vessels will search the sea floor using side scan sonar, multi-beam echo sounders and video cameras to locate and identify the aircraft debris.
The underwater search of the 60,000 square kilometre area is still expected to take up to 12 months to complete.

Currently, the vessels Fugro Equator is carrying out bathymetric survey operations in the Southern Indian Ocean for the missing airliner. The survey will map the ocean floor to ensure the safe and effective operation of equipment during the next underwater search phase.

Fugro Equator will be mobilised as a search vessel when its bathymetric work is complete around the end of October.

On Monday, 6 October 2014, vessel GO Phoenix arrived in the vicinity of the search area and began underwater search operations on the seventh arc. The vessel is expected to continue operations for around 12 days before sailing to Fremantle to be resupplied.
Fugro Discovery, which arrived at the Port of Fremantle on Sunday, 5 October has also begun underwater search.

Vessels involved in the search are being jointly funded by Malaysia and Australia.

Source: Australian Transport Safety Board