With domestic passenger traffic, more than quadrupled over the last 10 years, China is poised to become the world’s number one aviation ...
With domestic passenger traffic, more than quadrupled over the last 10 years, China is poised to become the world’s number one aviation market within the next 10 years.
Increased traffic means increased requirement for commercial airplanes. European airplane manufacturer Airbus, which currently has 50 percent Chinese market share in the 100+ seat category, forecasts Chinese requirement for over 5,300 new passenger aircraft and freighters from 2014 to 2033, worth US$ 820 billion.
China will become the leading country for passenger air traffic, for both domestic and international markets as the passenger traffic in China will grow well above the world average.
According to Airbus’ 2014-2033 Global Market Forecast, new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft for China will be 5,363 over the next 20 years, including 3,567 single aisle aircraft, 1,477 twin-aisles and 319 very large aircraft.
It represents 17 per cent of the world total demand for over 31,000 new aircraft in the next 20 years.
Chinese domestic air traffic will overtake that of United States in 2023, in terms of the number of passengers and in 2027, in terms of RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometre).
In the next 20 years, the forecast average annual growth rate for the domestic Chinese market is 7.1 per cent but will grow even faster over the next 10 years at 8.3 per cent on average per year. By 2033, the domestic Chinese market will remain the largest flow, representing 11.9 per cent of world traffic in terms of RPK.
During the period between 2013 and 2023, the average annual growth rate for international traffic from/to mainland China will be 8.1 per cent. Four out of the 20 largest flows (RPK) will be from/to PRC. The average annual growth rate for markets between emerging Asian countries and PRC is 7.5 per cent, for routes between PRC and the USA is 6.6 per cent, while the routes between Western Europe and PRC is 5.6 per cent.
Drivers of China’s dynamic air transport growth include the country’s long-term economic development. The average annual economic growth in China is forecast at 7.4 per cent between 2013 and 2023. China will become the world’s biggest economy in 2023, with its GDP accounting for 19 per cent of the world’s total.
Higher wages have also contributed to the growth, with average wages having increased five-fold in the past decade and will continue to rise in the years ahead and fuel higher levels of disposable income and private consumption, which is expected to account for 41 per cent of Chinese GDP in 2023.
